CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-05-05T08:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24943/-1
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T18:45Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24952/1 Model Inputs: 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=877.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2023-05-04T12:21Z 2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-34.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=955.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2023-05-05T11:48Z 2-CME simulation with 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001 CME a day before (05/04). Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-05-07T18:45Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =23.1 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1 (kp)90=4 (kp)180=6 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-05-07T01:25Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230504_122100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 45.07 hour(s)
Difference: -5.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-05-05T16:16Z
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